【周末荐读】陈启清：民间投资如何走出低迷（中英双语）

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本文作者为为IMI特约研究员、中央党校宏观经济研究室主任陈启清，英文原文刊载于China Daily Africa Weekly。

作为中国经济中最活跃的一支力量，2016以来，民间投资却持续低迷，具体表现为：民间投资增速快速下滑、民间投资增速低于固定资产投资平均增速、增速差异导致民间投资占比下降。

作者总结了社会各界对近来民间投资低迷原因的主流看法为信心缺失、准入约束、融资约束、挤出效应、政府行为不当等五方面原因。陈启清教授同时指出，民间投资的下降很大程度上是因为实体投资与金融、房地产投资的相对收益。巨大的财富效应和利润空间诱惑着坚守在传统产业里的企业家们脱离主业，抛弃实业，将资金转入金融和房地产领域。

最后，作者认为要促进民间投资健康发展，除了落实好《国务院办公厅关于进一步做好民间投资有关工作的通知》中的各项政策外，还必须要扭转产业投资和金融投资、房地产投资（主要指房地产买卖）的收益对比，引导民间投资主体将更多资金投入到产业中去。为此，在国家发展导向上必须高高举起实业兴国、实业强国的旗帜；要通过增收减支提升产业投资收益率引导民营企业回归实业；通过增加金融供给、调控房地产市场控制金融和房地产交易高收益状况。

英文原文如下：

Reboot needed for private investment

By Chen Qiqing (China Daily Africa)

It is essential that China find a way to revive this lynchpin to its prospects for further rapid modernization and growth

Private investment has been the most active force in China's economy, but since the beginning of 2016, private investment has consistently been low, with weakness in 43 34166 43 14987 0 0 1785 0 0:00:19 0:00:08 0:00:11 2883the willingness to invest.

This situation is reflected in three aspects. First, the growth of private investment has decreased. In 2015, the growth of private investment was 10.1 percent higher than that of the previous year. But for the first half of 2016, the year-on-year growth was only about 2.8 percent.

Second, the growth of private investment is lower than the average growth of fixed-asset investment. Private investment had always been the fastest-growing segment of fixed-asset investment. In 2012, the growth of private investment was 24.8 percent, 4.2 percent higher than the whole society's fixed-asset investment growth.

Third, the differences in growth have meant that share of private investment in fixed-asset investment is decreasing. During 2014 and 2015, private investment accounted for about 65 percent of all fixed-asset investment, but this year the ratio dropped, and for the first half of 2016 it decreased to 61.5 percent, a drop of 3.6 percentage points.

Private investment is mainly from nonpublic sectors in China, which play an increasingly important role in China's overall economy. Nonpublic sectors - including private companies, individuals and some forms of foreign capital - have contributed about 60 percent of China's GDP, 80 percent of the employment, and 50 percent of the taxes.

In the past few years, about 70 percent of China's rapid foreign investment has come from nonpublic sectors. After the 2008 world financial crisis, private investment has been the main force ensuring stable growth, restructuring of the economy and steady employment. So the recent slowdown of private investment has attracted a lot of attention.

The main reasons for this phenomenon include, first, China's ongoing economic slowdown, given that private investors are not very optimistic and hesitate to invest. Second are access restrictions, keeping private companies from being treated the same as state-owned companies in aspects such as market access, resources allocation and government services, so they cannot undertake certain investments even if they wanted to do so. Third are restrictions on financing, since it is difficult for private companies to acquire sufficient capital at a reasonable cost. Fourth is that nonprivate investment is pushing private investment away from certain areas. Nonprivate investment includes public investment, and also some types of foreign capital and other types of funds.

Then there's the misbehavior of government officials, and failed promises from local governments, which also affect private investment.

All these reasons influence the growth of private investment, but one important reason has not yet been mentioned. Based on our contact with entrepreneurs, the decrease in private investment is mainly due to the difference in profit outlook for investing in the real economy, and in the financial and real estate industries. Private investors can invest in the real economy, in which case those investments become part of private fixed-assets and GDP, or they can put capital in the financial market or properties. The choice of private investors greatly influences private fixed-asset investment.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, China's real economy has been slowing down and its costs have been increasing, so profit margins and the rate of return on investment have fallen sharply. Entrepreneurs cannot see the future of the real economy and are hesitating about investing more. On the contrary, investment in the finance sector, or in the real estate, have brought big returns.

There are ways of managing money in the financial market to produce returns higher than those from investing in the real economy. Gains made from buying an apartment can even outpace a company's annual profits. Huge profits have seduced entrepreneurs in traditional industries to give up on their main business and the real economy, and move their money into the financial and real estate sectors. Our research finds that this year's sharp drop in private investment growth has a lot to do with rapid increases in real estate prices and transactions.

So in order to promote the healthy development of private investment, apart from relying only on incentive policies, we should also change the rates of return for real economy investment, and for financial and real estate investments.

We should make development of the real economy an important agenda item for China by increasing the rate of return in the real economy and also controlling the overly high rate of return in the real estate and financial markets. This would reawaken private companies' interest in the real economy.

中文原文如下：

 一直以来，民间投资都是中国经济中最活跃的一支力量，但2016以来，民间投资持续低迷，投资活跃度降低，投资意愿不强，突出表现在三个方面：第一，民间投资增速快速下滑。2015年，民间投资增速还在10.1%，今年1-2月下降到6.9%，上半年更是下降到2.8%。第二，民间投资增速低于固定资产投资平均增速。民间投资一度是固定资产投资中增速最快的，2012年，民间投资增长24.8%，比全社会固定资产投资增速高出4.2个百分点。但今年上半年，民间投资增速反而比全社会固定资产投资增速低了6.2个百分点。第三，增速差异导致民间投资占比下降。2014到2015年，民间投资占却社会固定资产投资之比稳定在65%左右，但2016年占比迅速下降，今年上半年，民间固定资产投资占比下降到61.5%，比去年同期降低3.6个百分点。

民间投资主要是由非公有制经济完成的，其在中国经济发展中发挥着越来越重要的作用，非公有制经济创造了60%左右的GDP，80%的就业，50%的税收，最近几年快速发展的对外投资将近70%来自非公有制经济。金融危机后，民间投资一度以高于非民间投资较快的增速成为稳增长、调结构、促就业的重要力量。因此，近来民间投资的低迷引发了多方面的强烈关注，社会各界对其原因进行了深入分析，目前主要有以下几种看法：第一，信心缺失。由于经济持续下行，民间投资主体对经济前景没有信心，不敢投资。第二，准入约束。民营企业在市场准入、资源配置和政府服务等方面难以享受与国企同等待遇，想进行投资却无法实现。第三，融资约束。民营企业无法以适当的价格获得足够的金融资源来进行投资。第四，挤出效应。非民间投资的快速增长把民间投资从某些领域当中挤出。第五，政府行为不当。一些干部不作为、不会为、乱作为，少数地方政府失信也影响了民营企业的投资。

以上种种原因确实影响了民间投资的增长，但忽略了另一个重要的原因。根据我们和民营企业家的交流，民间投资的下降很大程度上是因为实体投资与金融、房地产投资的相对收益。我们所讨论的民间投资严格意义上特指民间固定资产投资，是指具有集体、私营、个人性质的内资企事业单位以及由其控股的企业单位建造或购置固定资产的投资。作为民间投资主体而言，他们面临两个基本选择：一是将资金投入实体经济，这将形成民间固定资产投资，并产生GDP；二是将资金投入金融市场或者购买房子等实物资产。民间投资主体在这两种投资形式间的选择很大程度上影响了民间固定资产投资。从实体经济来看，2008年金融危机后，我国经济保持下行态势，实体经济面临着收入下降而成本上升两头挤压的巨大压力，利润率和投资收益率严重下降，企业家看不到实体经济的未来，不敢进行再投资。与此相反，金融投资或房地产投资持续上演着财富神话，各种理财有着比实体经济投资收益率更高的收益，买一套房子带来的收益甚至多于企业一年利润。巨大的财富效应和利润空间诱惑着坚守在传统产业里的企业家们脱离主业，抛弃实业，将资金转入金融和房地产领域。从我们现实调研看，今年民间投资增速快速下滑和房价快速上涨、房屋交易活跃有很大关系。

因此，要促进民间投资健康发展，除了落实好《国务院办公厅关于进一步做好民间投资有关工作的通知》中的各项政策外，还必须要扭转产业投资和金融投资、房地产投资（主要指房地产买卖）的收益对比，引导民间投资主体将更多资金投入到产业中去。为此，在国家发展导向上必须高高举起实业兴国、实业强国的旗帜；要通过增收减支提升产业投资收益率引导民营企业回归实业；通过增加金融供给、调控房地产市场控制金融和房地产交易高收益状况。

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